Surviving Sundarbans: Tragedy and Hope, Edition 2

In marginalised rural communities that rely on ecosystem services, access to these services is essential for achieving sustainable livelihoods. This research presents a comprehensive analysis of physical, natural, financial, social and human assets in twelve villages within the Gosaba CD Block of the Indian Sundarban, a region facing significant climate-related challenges. Using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework (SLF) together with the Prescott-Allen (2001) “Barometer of Sustainability”, we developed a normalised Sustainability Index (SI) to quantitatively assess household resilience. The investigation further aimed to elucidate how components of livelihood capital influence access to forest-based provisioning services (PS) in selected villages. The contribution of livelihood capitals to access to provisioning services (PS) was assessed through factor analysis of a sample of 160 households selected through cluster random sampling. The findings reveal significant disparities in sustainability across the region; for instance, Mathurakhand (SI 1.15) is classified as “Sustainable”, whereas several villages, particularly those adjacent to forested areas, are categorised as “Moderate” to “Potentially Unsustainable”, highlighting the need for targeted capital-level interventions. A salient observation is the pervasive deficiency in financial capital, which generates excessive dependence on diminishing natural resources. The regression analysis (R² = 0.993) underscores the critical role of human and social capital as stabilising factors; however, limited income diversification in forest-fringe regions indicates a “livelihood trap” arising from scarce non-farm opportunities. Policy initiatives should therefore transition towards the regenerative management of natural capital and targeted skill development to enhance diversification. Facilitating the issuance of Biometric Fisherman cards for forest access, providing flexibility in loan procurement and promoting ecotourism through the involvement of local villagers should be prioritised to augment forest-based provisioning services in the foreseeable future.