New Ideas Concerning Arts and Social Studies Vol. 9

Migration is an important livelihood response among farming households in the semi-arid regions of India, where recurrent drought, rainfall variability, declining farm profitability, limited employment opportunities and production risks constrain rural livelihoods. This study examines the relationship between agricultural vulnerability, fallow land, and the migration of farmers and agricultural labourers, with special reference to Karnataka. It analyses state-level fallow-land trends from 2013–14 to 2022–23, district-level land-use patterns for 2020–21, and empirical evidence on rural migration. Total fallow land in Karnataka declined from 2.225 million hectares in 2013–14 to 1.164 million hectares in 2022–23, although it increased after 2020–21. The fitted linear trend was significantly negative (R² = 0.765; p = 0.001), while year-to-year variation remained substantial. District-level fallow land was highly concentrated: the five leading districts accounted for approximately 41.0% of the state total in 2020–21. The evidence indicates that drought, reduced farm profitability and declining local agricultural employment can encourage seasonal and circular migration, while migration may also affect the availability of household and local farm labour. The analysis supports an association between agricultural vulnerability, fallowing and labour mobility but does not establish direct causality. Strengthening rainfed agriculture, rural employment and portable social protection may reduce distress-driven mobility while allowing voluntary migration to function as a livelihood-diversification strategy.