New Horizons of Science, Technology and Culture Vol. 11

Diabetes, a non-communicable and chronic disease, occurs when the pancreas is unable to produce sufficient insulin in the body or when the body cannot effectively use the insulin it produces. The prevalence of diabetes has been increasing in both developed and developing nations in recent times, and many people remain ignorant of the disease and its management. This has led to an alarming mortality rate worldwide. In 2014, 8.5% of adults aged 18 years and older had diabetes. By 2019, diabetes was the direct cause of 1.5 million deaths, and 48% of all deaths due to diabetes occurred before the age of 70 years. Such a situation poses a great challenge globally, as high mortality rates resulting from diabetes lead to the loss of human capital that would have otherwise contributed to economic growth and development.

This study analyses the prevalence of diabetes and its indirect effect on economic growth, emphasising the need for effective management as a cornerstone for reducing its high mortality incidence worldwide. The study employed secondary data collected from reliable sources. The data were cross-sectional, drawn from randomly selected countries across the world. The methodology applied a non-linear model to examine the relationships among variables, while the methods of analysis included the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model and marginal effects estimation. The theoretical framework is grounded in the Endogenous Growth Theory, which posits that economic growth is driven by human capital accumulation, productivity improvements, and innovation. 

The findings reveal that the estimated adult diabetes population (EADP) has a negative impact on economic growth (GDP per capita) when diabetes-related deaths (DDR) are at their mean and minimum values, and a positive impact when DDR is at its maximum value. This implies that at high diabetes-related mortality rates, economic growth appears to improve because the economic burden associated with diabetes decreases. Furthermore, EADP shows a positive relationship with GDP per capita when the cost per person with diabetes (CPPD) is at its mean and maximum values, and a negative relationship when CPPD is at its minimum value. This indicates that in higher-income settings, diabetes prevalence may increase alongside greater healthcare expenditure and lifestyle-related risk factors, whereas in lower-expenditure contexts, the burden of disease may be associated with weaker economic performance, potentially due to constrained healthcare financing and limited access to care. Overall, EADP is negatively associated with GDP per capita when DDR is at its mean and minimum levels and when CPPD is at its minimum level. These findings highlight the complex and context-dependent relationship between diabetes burden and economic performance.

In conclusion, the study underscores the multidimensional economic implications of diabetes. It recommends that governments adopt comprehensive public health strategies combining regulation of unhealthy diets and alcohol consumption, population-wide health education, and promotion of physical activity to reduce diabetes prevalence. Although this study relies on cross-sectional secondary data and employs OLS and marginal effects estimation, future research may consider panel data approaches, instrumental variable techniques, or alternative econometric frameworks to further validate and extend these findings.