Knowledge, Innovation and Technology in Scientific Research Vol. 2

Circular economy business models are widely presented as a means of separating commercial value creation from primary resource throughput, yet the commercial and macroeconomic evidence supporting that proposition remains uneven. This critical narrative review examines three interlocking questions: how circular business models create, deliver and capture value; why comparatively few of them reach a scale at which they alter industrial or consumption patterns; and what can defensibly be concluded about their economic impact at firm and economy-wide levels. Literature published between 2015 and 3 July 2026 was identified through structured searching of open scholarly databases and indexes, supplemented by backward and forward citation searching and by targeted retrieval of institutional evidence, with foundational earlier work retained where conceptually necessary. Sources were appraised for design adequacy, measurement validity, treatment of confounding and external validity rather than by citation count alone. Four conclusions emerge. Conceptual proliferation has outpaced empirical consolidation, since competing typologies describe similar value logics in incompatible vocabulary, which frustrates cumulative measurement. Evidence that circular practices are associated with improved financial performance is reasonably consistent in direction but rests heavily on cross-sectional, self-reported and disclosure-derived measures, so causal interpretation remains weak. Scalability is constrained less by technology than by value capture, capital structure, ecosystem coordination and consumer acceptance, and the small number of studies that examine scaling directly point to capability and governance explanations that have not been tested at population level. Economy-wide assessments report modest and conditional aggregate gains, with employment and emissions outcomes depending on policy design, accounting boundaries and rebound assumptions. The persistent disconnect between encouraging firm-level associations and modest system-level effects is the central unresolved problem in this field. Research priorities include longitudinal and quasi-experimental designs, standardised economic indicators at value-chain level, and explicit treatment of rebound within business model evaluation.