Climate-Resilient Agriculture: Systems, Science and Solutions for a Warming World

Agriculture underpins global food security and rural livelihoods, yet it remains among the sectors most vulnerable to the escalating consequences of climate change. This review synthesises evidence from the peer-reviewed literature and authoritative institutional reports to examine the historical relationship between climate variability and agricultural systems, and to assess current trends in climate-driven agricultural disruption. From pre-industrial climatic fluctuations that shaped early farming civilisations to the anthropogenically forced warming of the twenty-first century, the interplay between climate and crop production has been continuous and consequential. Rising mean temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events collectively threaten to undermine crop yields, destabilise food systems, and exacerbate socio-economic inequalities at regional and global scales. Evidence indicates that global yields of major cereals, including wheat, maize, and rice, have already been negatively affected by observed warming trends. Projections under various emissions scenarios suggest further yield reductions in the range of two to six per cent per decade in the absence of robust adaptation. Regional vulnerabilities are pronounced, with sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and parts of Latin America facing disproportionate risks. Adaptation strategies — ranging from heat-tolerant crop varieties and altered planting calendars to policy reforms and water management innovations — offer meaningful but insufficient responses in isolation. The review also highlights the bidirectional relationship between agriculture and climate, as agricultural land use and practices contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. Identified knowledge gaps include the inadequate representation of socioeconomic feedbacks in crop models, the compounding effects of simultaneous climate hazards, and the limited data available from smallholder-dominated farming systems in low-income countries. Addressing these gaps is essential to formulating effective, equitable, and evidence-based responses to the climate–agriculture nexus.