India–United States Macroeconomic Interdependence in the New-Age Economy: Trade, Technology, Capital Flows and Strategic Supply Chains

Anurag Tripathi *

Venturesoul Managers India LLP, C/o Awfis Co-working Space, 8th Floor, Tower 1, One International Centre, Senapati Bapat Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai, Maharashtra-400013, India.

Madhumita Tripathi

Rohlig India Private Limited, Office # 608 & 609, Tower D, Times Square Building, Andheri Kurla Road, Marol | Andheri (E), Mumbai 400 059, India.

*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.


Abstract

India and the United States have developed a form of macroeconomic interdependence that is broader than conventional bilateral trade. It combines merchandise exchange, digitally delivered services, two-way investment, skilled mobility, knowledge networks and emerging cooperation in strategically sensitive supply chains. This critical narrative review evaluates how these channels interact, where dependence is genuinely reciprocal, and where apparent complementarity masks asymmetric exposure. Literature published from 1 January 1991 to 2 June 2026 was selected through transparent searches of accessible scholarly indexes, DOI registries and authoritative institutional sources, with earlier conceptual evidence considered where necessary. The evidence indicates that the relationship is anchored in a strong but structurally uneven division of labour. The United States supplies capital, technology, high-value demand, research ecosystems and selected energy and industrial inputs, whereas India provides scale, cost-competitive knowledge-intensive services, a large technical workforce, pharmaceuticals, engineering products and an expanding manufacturing base. Services and technology networks often create deeper mutual dependence than gross trade balances reveal, while value-added measurement shows that bilateral production effects extend through third countries and multinational firms. Financial interdependence is more asymmetric: US monetary and risk cycles influence Indian portfolio flows, exchange rates and financing conditions more strongly than Indian shocks affect the United States, although Indian direct investment and corporate activity increasingly support US employment and production. Strategic initiatives in semiconductors, critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence infrastructure and defence-linked manufacturing may increase resilience, but announced cooperation does not yet establish diversified capacity. Tariffs, data governance, professional mobility, export controls and domestic industrial policy remain persistent frictions. The review concludes that durable interdependence requires a shift from transaction growth towards institutionally supported co-production, interoperable regulation and measurable resilience, while preserving policy autonomy and avoiding inefficient securitisation of ordinary commerce.

Keywords: Digital trade, foreign direct investment, global value chains, India–US economic relations, macro-financial spillovers, semiconductor ecosystems, services trade, supply-chain resilience


How to Cite

Tripathi, A., & Tripathi, M. (2026). India–United States Macroeconomic Interdependence in the New-Age Economy: Trade, Technology, Capital Flows and Strategic Supply Chains. Capital, Credit and Commerce: Global Development Finance and India’s Role in the New Economic Order, 1–30. https://doi.org/10.9734/bpi/mono/978-81-69986-43-4/CH1